BREAKING: ‘1 in 50 people now have coronavirus’ |

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BREAKING: '1 in 50 people now have coronavirus' |

BREAKING: '1 in 50 people now have coronavirus' |

in the two weeks from the 30th of december uh up to the 3rd of december the uk case rate increased by 70 and as you can see by from these two graphs one of which is from the middle of december on the left and one on the right the map is from the 30th of december the darker colors are areas where there are very high rates of transmission and as you can see across the whole of the uk there has been a steady increase in the rates next slide please uh these are the most recent data from ons autism office for national statistics and what this shows is the number of people and they do this on a random sampling basis so this is a good estimate of the general population um they and this shows the data from august when we actually had very low rates so in the middle of middle of september for example one in 900 people had rates then an increase the lock down was brought in and that brought down the rates but then we had the problems of the new variant which i’ll come on to in the next slide and the worst period of winter combining to lead to a significant increase since that time and we’re now into a situation where across the country as a whole roughly one in 50 people have got the virus higher in some parts of the country lower in others but one in 50 is really quite a very large number indeed next slide please if we look around england what we find is that in every area there has been a relative increase in the new variant of this virus that is spreading around the country fastest increase in the east of england london and the southeast but it is now taking off in other areas as well in some of the areas where it took off to the highest level and tier four was brought in during a period when schools were closed there may be some uh early indications of some leveling off but i think we shouldn’t over interpret that but it is really clear that this new variant is has been rising uh in all parts of the country and what we’ve seen is that the bits of the country which have got some of the lower rates and had previously controlled things particularly in the northeast and north west for example the rate of increase has uh in many of these been higher than in some of the southern areas which have got very high rates already next slide please and this is inevitably translated into new numbers of patients coming into hospital so these are the number of people in hospital all the way from the 1st of april through to the 1st of january and you can see the first peak of people in hospital then decreased due to the remarkable efforts of everyone in the country during the first lockdown and then through the summer months an increase which then again went down due to the second lockdown but now really a very rapid increase and i don’t think you need any modelling to see in what direction uh the number of hospitalized patients with kovid is going and this is going up very rapidly and of course we are still in the middle of winter next slide please and sadly of course some of those people uh go on to die this is the number of deaths of people who had a positive test result and there was an increase uh which led to the second lockdown a decrease following that but these numbers of deaths are now increasing again they are at this point quite a long way below the first peak and there are three reasons for that the first of which which is very good news is that doctors nurses medical staff in general are able to manage this disease better than they did previously better drugs things like dexamethasone but also better treatment all round the second reason is that there is uh an age effect that some of the people who are being infected the moment are younger age than in the first wave but this obviously uh what we’ve seen previously is it moves up through the age bands over time but the third reason is that uh deaths are much delayed so what happens is people get infected there’s then a delay before they get ill enough to go into hospital and then there’s quite a long delay before some people sadly die and we will unfortunately see because of the spike in people going into hospital from the last slide we will inevitably see an increase in number of people with who die of this disease as we go into the rest of january

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credit by: morgan center library and Sky News on youtube



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